Premier League · 2026/27
Nottingham Forest
Early season. Only 19 matches have been played, so opponent-adjusted ratings are unstable. Teams have not met often enough to separate a strong attack from a weak opponent. Treat these as directional.
Over 2 matches, Nottingham Forest create most danger through the middle (1.18× the league norm), and concede most down their left (1.30×).
2 scored, 1.5 below xG
3 conceded, 1.3 above xGA
Where the shots come from
Shots taken
every shot, or counted by zoneNottingham Forest, 2026/27 · 24 shots in the final 35m, 2 scored. Shape carries the outcome rather than colour, so it reads in print and to anyone who cannot separate the hues.
vs league average · 1.00 marked · share of xG
Shots taken
every shot, or counted by zoneNottingham Forest, 2026/27 · 24 shots in the final 35m, 2 scored. Shape carries the outcome rather than colour, so it reads in print and to anyone who cannot separate the hues.
vs league average · 1.00 marked · share of xG
Shots faced
every shot, or counted by zoneNottingham Forest, 2026/27 · 24 shots in the final 35m, 3 scored. Shape carries the outcome rather than colour, so it reads in print and to anyone who cannot separate the hues.
vs league average · 1.00 marked · share of xG
Flanks and routes
Danger conceded by flank
left against right · open play onlyNottingham Forest concede more down their left: more attacks there, and better ones.
- Attacks faced
- 1.60×
- Chance quality
- 1.24×
Shots on the weak flank per shot on the strong one
xG per shot on the weak flank versus the strong one
Set pieces are excluded, since a corner has no flank. Sides within ten points of an even split are treated as level, since a season is short enough that smaller gaps are usually noise.
Crosses or through balls
open play onlyNottingham Forest take 0% of their open-play danger from crosses and 10% from balls played through the middle.
Measured from the action immediately before each shot. This shows whether a side works the ball wide or through the middle; which flank they progress down cannot be derived, because no free source publishes pass locations.
Who does the work
Territory and pressing
1.00 = league averageNottingham Forest move the ball about as the league does.
- Territory won0.92×
6.0 deep completions a match
- Territory allowed0.46×
3.0 conceded a match
- Pressing0.83×
15.2 opponent passes per defensive action
- Freedom to build0.41×
5.1 of their own passes allowed
- Danger per arrival0.95×
0.231 npxG per deep completion
A deep completion is a pass finished within about twenty yards of goal, and PPDA counts an opponent’s passes per defensive action. A lower figure is a harder press, so the bar inverts it to keep every row reading the same way. This describes where the ball ends up rather than how it travelled: no pass or carry record exists in this data, so progressive passes and carries are genuinely out of reach rather than merely absent.
Share of attacking output
non-penalty xG plus expected assistsNottingham Forest’s attack is effectively 5.3 players. A side spread across fourteen absorbs an absence that one built on nine does not.
- Dan Ndoye29.5%
- Igor Jesus27.1%
- James McAtee7.6%
- Neco Williams7.2%
- Ola Aina6.6%
Share of the squad’s non-penalty xG plus expected assists, so it counts chances taken and chances given alike. Penalties are left out because they describe who the club nominates rather than who creates. Contributors under 2% are not listed, though they still count towards the spread above.
Creator to finisher
shots and xG per pairing- Dan Ndoye→Igor Jesus0.9 xG2 shots · 0g
- Ola Aina→Igor Jesus0.3 xG3 shots · 0g
- Morgan Gibbs-White→Dan Ndoye0.3 xG1 shot · 1g
- Liam Delap→Neco Williams0.2 xG1 shot · 0g
- James McAtee→Dan Ndoye0.2 xG1 shot · 0g
- Igor Jesus→Dan Ndoye0.1 xG1 shot · 0g
- James McAtee→Igor Jesus0.1 xG1 shot · 0g
- James McAtee→Nikola Milenkovic0.1 xG1 shot · 0g
The pass immediately before the shot, so a player who starts moves without playing the final ball will not appear here. Roughly seven in ten shots name their creator.
How the season splits
Danger by scoreline
leading, level or behindNottingham Forest produce most of their danger with the game level (89% of their xG).
- Ahead9%
- Level89%
- Behind2%
- Ahead
- 9%
- 0.3 xG · 3 shots
- Level
- 89%
- 3.1 xG · 20 shots
- Behind
- 2%
- 0.1 xG · 1 shots
The scoreline at the moment each shot was struck, rebuilt from goal times. Sides that trail often will look busier in attack than they really are.
Home and away
same team, two recordsNottingham Forest are a noticeably different side by venue, creating less 2.22 xG per match at home, and conceding 0.81 fewer.
Shots faced and shots stopped
two different jobsNottingham Forest allow 0.87 xG a match, and concede 1.3 more goals than the league converts that into.
- Chance prevention
- 0.87
- Shot stopping
- -1.3
xG allowed per match. Mostly the outfield shape, and it tends to repeat.
Goals prevented against the league rate. Largely the keeper, and it swings year to year.
Measured against the league’s own conversion rate rather than raw xG. Blocked and off-target shots carry xG that can never be scored, so comparing goals to raw xG would mark every side in the division as leaky. A high block share means bodies in the way rather than chances denied.